Yeah the entry-level job market is cooked, but is AI really the villain?
Are we trying to treat a patient without looking at the chart?
Articles blaming AI for bleak entry-level job prospects for are becoming as abundant as the “AI Bro” greatest hits. You know the ones: “adapt or die”, “__ will never be the same”, and “it’s so over”. Sigh.
And yeah, the numbers are bad. Unemployment for new bachelor’s degree holders is up over 6%….ugly compared to where we were a few years ago. The story goes that ChatGPT, Claude Code, Codex, and Cursor (what’s with all the C’s?) and the like are eating that entry-level work. Companies don’t need juniors anymore, so they say.
I get why that narrative sticks. It’s scary, sensational, dramatic, and feels right to those of us who have experienced what these tools do. But in Glenda Morgan’s recent breakdown of this, she points out something inconvenient: the hiring slump actually started before the generative AI boom really took hold.
“But the argument is also, if not wrong, at least premature. Among other issues, the falloff in new graduate hiring predates the widespread adoption of generative AI. Despite these problems, it is an account that has gained a lot of traction. Because of this, there is a real danger that efforts to address the issue will be focused on the wrong thing.” - Glenda Morgan
EDIT: Oh and then there is this timely published study from 12/28 → In an end-of-year note to investors, Vanguard set the record straight: careers that research claims are most susceptible to AI are actually thriving, not dying out.
“The approximately 100 occupations most exposed to AI automation are actually outperforming the rest of the labor market in terms of job growth and real wage increases,” the Vanguard report revealed. “This suggests that current AI systems are generally enhancing worker productivity and shifting workers’ tasks toward higher-value activities.” - Emma Burleigh
This matters in higher ed because there already exists a climate of panic around the demographic cliff and worsening sentiment around higher ed ROI. If an AI bogeyman strikes fear into boards and administration, we may prematurely spend a fortune trying to solve AI. We’ll rewrite curriculums, buy a bunch of shiny new "AI readiness" platforms, engage in expensive Deloitte AI strategy and governance, and blindly give Microsoft even more money for more lame copilots. But if the real issue is just a crappy economy or high interest rates, none of that expensive work is going to change the hiring numbers.
It highlights something we’re terrible at in higher ed: we don’t actually know what’s happening with our own data.
University data is all over the place. Career Services has some of it, Alumni Relations has some, the Registrar has some, definitions and access rules are opaque and inconsistent, and quality is often an afterthought. It’s a freaking mess.
(Let’s not talk about data loss, privacy, and cybersecurity implications…)
So while everyone is wringing their hands about the "future of work," I’m over here still thinking about something much more boring: integration and data enablement. Are we going to make huge strategic bets based on anecdotes without a clear view of our pipeline? Are employers rejecting our students because they can’t use AI or because the market competition is flooded?
“There is a real danger that if we focus on the second phase (the expertise upheaval) rather than the first phase and the more immediate causes of the graduate hiring slump, we will fail to address the issue or address it only partially.” - Glenda Martin
Maybe AI really will wipe out entry-level jobs. But are we trying to treat a patient without looking at the chart first? Before we turn the whole university upside down chasing the AI trend, we should probably figure out what our data is actually trying to tell us. Yes…I am speaking of that same boring need to build stronger data cultures and capabilities.
It’s not as exciting as an "AI Revolution," but it’s probably a lot more useful. Just think of where you would be now had you started 10 years ago.